The effectiveness of different countries' approach to Covid-19

Alex Bäcker 

The rapidly evolving Covid-19 soon to be pandemic has the potential to kill hundreds of thousands of people and wreak economic havoc. Different countries follow very different protocols both in terms of treatment and in the prevention of contagion. It is thus of great interest for policymakers and healthcare professionals to know which the most effective models are for each of those, so that the most effective ones may be emulated.

Here, I compare contagion and death rates among the five countries with the largest number of known cases, using the data published at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries .

In Italy, 39% of closed cases have ended in death, vs. 61% in recovery or discharge. Deaths are growing exponentially, with the total deaths following a straight line in a log scale. Active cases (the # of infected people) in Italy are growing by 25% per day, with 7985 active cases as of last count.

At the same stage (# of cases), China’s active cases were growing at 29% per day. Deaths constitute 5% of closed cases.

At the same stage, Korea’s active cases are growing at only 1.2% per day. Deaths constitute 18% of closed cases.

Iran has not reached the same stage yet, but is growing at less than 7% per day. 9% of closed cases ended in death.

France’s active cases are growing at 16% per day, although the epidemic is still early there.

These numbers suggest that China’s is the model to emulate in terms of treatment, as their death rate is lowest, and that Korea’s is the model to emulate in terms of contagion prevention, as their active cases growth is the lowest by far.