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Alex Bäcker's Wiki / The WWW has entered adulthood
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The WWW has entered adulthood

Page history last edited by Alex Backer, Ph.D. 17 years, 2 months ago

The WWW has Reach Maturity

 

Google has been growing approximately linearly, not exponentially, since at least 2002. That MySpace's exponential growth is over. And 2006 has shown extremely stable pageview counts for all major WWW portals. Has the WWW entered maturity?

 

 

The fact that daily reach has not only stabilized but also stabilized at equal numbers for all three major portals (Yahoo, MSN and Google):

suggests (but does not prove) that most users use Yahoo, Google and MSN at some point every day.

 

This conclusion is reinforced by the fact that eBay and Amazon's daily reach are virtually overlapping, suggesting that people shopping online on any given day visit both eBay and Amazon sometime during the day:

 

The war to win users is over for the major players. From now on, the game is about keeping them on your site.

 

P.S. Note that the lack of pageview growth as measured by Alexa could mean simply that the number of Alexa toolbar users are not growing and that they are not changing their preferences. Also, note that as use of the WWW grows, Alexa's measure of reach, which is the number of users that visit a domain daily, becomes rather uninformative, as it becomes increasingly common for WWW users to visit all major portals on any given day --sort of like asking people whether they saw a red, green or yellow stoplight today: when there was one stoplight in town and people drove infrequently, you might get a scattering of responses representative of the time length of each, but as the number of stoplights and traffic grows, you'll get everyone to answer "All 3".

 

 

 

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